The Pros and Cons of Valuation

For private debt. Because, again, credit drives the economy. So, there’s the very strong relationship between credit and the level of employment and this is shown in the American data right now.The red line is the change in private debt, which is credit. The blue line is the unemployment-rate. This is going back to. I’m graphing unemployment on one side and GDP on the other, obviously.

And you can see that there’s a strong negative relationship. It’s a ridiculously strong negative relationship, in fact. If anybody knows their mathematics, the co-relation between those two series is -. What it says is when credit starts to fall, unemployment will rise and vice versa. So you see the lowest level of unemployment for America, which is when it was down to about .% back in, corresponded to credit being % of GDP. Then the GFC strikes and credit goes from +% to -% of GDP. Unemployment goes from .%to %.Ryan Is.

this private debt or government debt or both?Steve, This is private debt. Just private debt. Government debt actually in the opposite direction. Government debt is a bit like an air conditioning system in a hot house. As the hot temperature goes up, the air conditioning turns on and cools the property down. That what government debt does, it operates in the opposite direction.

The driving force is private debt.Ryan Yup. Is this just because people are using debt to buy things which fuel the economy, which creates jobs?Steve Yeah, exactly. So your total demand – your own personal demand. If you go shopping, you can buy something either by using cash you currently got in your bank account do you swipe your debit card or.